Scientists have warned of a sixth wave of Covid-19 and urged Kenyans not to be vigilant.
In its 15th advisory opinion, the prestigious Lake Region Economic Bloc (LREB) committee says The next Covid-19 wave will start in late April, peak around May 17 and recede after June 2.
The panel says the wave will last around 40 days and is likely to be milder than the previous one
“The likely average daily infection will be 500 and the number of people expected to contract the virus is 20,000 with the total number of deaths over the entire period being 349,” Khama said Rogo, Chair of the LREB Eminent Committee.
Prof. Rogo added in his statement that vaccination campaigns need to be stepped up, particularly among the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
“We should step up vaccination efforts, especially booster shots for adults, especially the high-risk groups,” he said .
Some counties that had hardly any new Covid-19 cases have started registering them.
Dr. Steven Ouko, who is in charge of the Kakamega County Covid-19 Isolation Unit, told the Daily Nation that his team registered five new cases in 48 hours.
“The cases are consistent with the prediction of the LREB committees agree. We’ve only had one patient in our ward in the past two weeks, but the number is growing. This also follows recent training on active screening. I said goodbye, but I have to go back to work,” he said yesterday.
Dr. Ouko added that patients in the isolation ward are elderly and advised the government to review easing containment measures. especially wearing masks.
“Masks prevented the spread of the virus and other respiratory diseases such as tuberculosis. People don’t wash their hands like they used to. Even cases of diarrhea are increasing,” he said.
The doctor added that vulnerable people need to be protected from the deadly disease.
“Old people have been of all Covid-19 waves. The very young were hit hardest by the Omicron wave, and people with underlying conditions such as diabetes are also at risk.”
Dr. Ouko said that although the country is in a political season where social distancing is largely ignored, it shouldn’t lose people to the virus.
Dr. Shem Otoi, the mathematician who developed the Otoi-Narima model that predicted the sixth wave of Covid-19, said Kenyans are taking risks.
“We accurately predicted the five waves, but people are acting like the war on the virus has already been won,” he said yesterday.
The new wave is being attributed to a number of factors, including ignoring public health protocols and guidelines that Reopening of schools, political activities and the low vaccination rate.
“Whether the wave is driven by Omicron subvariants or recombinants is not known. Whether it is a completely new variant, we can not say. All we know is that it will happen. There should be continuous surveillance through sequencing,” he said.
While the Department of Health says the country has about 30 percent of the population fully vaccinated, it’s a long way from the global target of 70 percent reach June.
In Shanghai, China and Scotland in the UK, media reports have pointed to a rise in cases. Shanghai has been locked down.
Dr. Ouko advised hospitals that had closed their isolation centers to reopen them so as not to be surprised when the new wave arrives.
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