A prominent election administration body that protects individual and business interests and the involvement of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in succession politics could see the outcome of the country’s August general election being contested.
In a According to a report released earlier this week by the International Crisis Group (ICG), Kenya’s election results for the presidency this year may be more controversial than in 2002 and 2013, when a new president took office.
The report is titled ” Kenya’s 2022 Election: High Stakes,” it said the August 9 election could be challenged in court. This can either indicate more trust in the courts or less trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
Citing the violence after the 2007/8 elections, the ICG speaks of a polarization of the elites , particularly the rift between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto have contributed to the perception that the security services may not play a neutral role in the election cycle.
Other factors such as inequality and Kenya’s deteriorating economy create the risk of young people being unemployed being recruited into gangs.
Four candidates for the presidential nomination were approved this week, with polls showing Mr Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga leading the race.
“Of perhaps the greatest concern, Ruto, Odinga and Kenyatta, all enjoy substantial electoral support and none shit nt be willing to endure the exclusion of Kenya’s patronage-driven policies, which entails an electoral defeat,” says the report.
“The combination of high tensions within the elite and weak institutions mean , that the outcome of the vote may well be challenged if one of the main candidates denies official results, claiming to have been cheated. A key scenario for unrest would be if one group or another of Kenya’s political leaders decided to play with existing ethnic and economic divisions to drive voters onto the streets, rather than concede defeat,” the report added.
The report states the IEBC has not adopted all the rules of commissions of inquiry that examined weeks of mass violence related to elections in 2007 and 2008, which left more than 1,100 people dead and at least 600,000 others displaced.< /p>