After a long-running Islamist uprising and months of postponed elections, Somalia is no stranger to instability, but the country is now at risk of renewed violence due to an increasingly bitter stalemate between its president and prime minister.
Here’s a look at why Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble’s relationship with President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed aka Farmaajo has deteriorated so quickly, and what’s in store for the unstable nation in the Horn of Africa.
What yours Relationship always difficult?
Not exactly. Roble, a civil engineer trained in Sweden, was torn from political oblivion by the President, better known as Farmaajo, and was appointed Prime Minister last September.
The technocrat generally stepped back from the politically savvy Farmaajo, the worked for the State Department and was prime minister himself before he became president.
After the head of state extended his mandate in April without holding elections in the country’s worst episode of political violence in years, he appealed Roble, to defuse the situation by asking him to organize the general election.
What went wrong?
As Roble’s notoriety rose, he began to challenge Farmaajo on several issues, which angered the president.
He visited Kenya last month and suffered a thaw in diplomatic relations days after Farmaajo defected government institutions or officials had offered to reach agreements with other countries or organizations until elections were held.
Roble then took power in Somalia l The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) last week criticized the conduct of a high-profile investigation into fate of 25-year-old officer Ikran Tahlil, whose disappearance caused an outcry.
Tahlil’s family has accused NISA of murdering her – a view supported by many Somalis who denounce the agency on social media and demand justice.
As Roble the director of the agency, Fahad Yasin, a close associate of Farmaajo. suspended, the President reacted quickly, reinstating his old friend and then promoting him to National Security Advisor.
The Prime Minister responded by accusing Farmaajo of “obstructing” the investigation and saying that Developments signaled “a dangerous existential threat to the country’s system of government”.
Where are things now?
Public controversy has increased tensions in Mogadishu, where military units are near Farmaajo’s office stationed outside was NISA headquarters Wednesday.
The power struggle also had an impact on various government agencies, with a NISA official telling AFP that senior officials appeared to have chosen one side in the series.
An Information Department official told AFP that journalists from the state-run media company were instructed not to post any messages from Farmaajo.
On Wed. Things escalated further on the weekend when Roble fired Home Secretary Hassan Hundubey Jimale and replaced him with a Farmaajo critic, “The Key Ministry that oversees all security, police and intelligence services.
The President wasted no time, to shoot back on Thursday calling the decision unconstitutional, while the dismissed minister accused Roble of “engaging in a new conflict”.
What lies ahead?
Many fear that the dispute will plunge an already fragile electoral process into even greater danger.
The next phase of the election, which follows a complex indirect voting model, will be on ki. seated in the lower house of parliament from October 1st to November 25th.
But it is not clear when the parliament will elect a new head of state.
“This conflict, if not amicably resolved will hamper all other ongoing political endeavors, including the electoral process, which will be delayed if not stopped completely, “Abdikani Omar, a former senior official, told AFP.
Roble has already accused Farmaajo tries to regain “the electoral and security responsibilities entrusted to him at the beginning of the year”.
Why is this important?
Since the Al-Shabaab jihadists control large parts of the country, Somalia is unable to handle a full blown political crisis.
the militants have already waded in line and issued a quick – and unusual – denial when NISA told you young officer had been murdered by the group / p>
The international community is concerned, including the United Nations, the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom), the United States, the European Union and the East African bloc Igadam two men, to stop the bickering and themselves on the country.
A decade after the Al Qaeda-affiliated militants were driven out of Mogadishu, the government controls only a small part of the country with the crucial help of some 20,000 soldiers from Amisom.
“We saw in April how quickly Mogadishu can become the arena for opposing forces amid a major political collapse,” said Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group (ICG.). ).
“Depending on how events develop in the coming days, a repetition could be imminent.”