According to the forecast, if the peak is mild, nearly 1,000 people will succumb to the virus. The highest peak of deaths in Kenya was in the third wave, when the country was losing about 40 Kenyans a day.
The modeling by Dr. Shem Sam Otoi, the coordinator of the Covid-19 programs for the Lake Economic Block (LREB) region, estimates the country will see nearly 75,000 infections during the fifth wave, with around 50,000 people developing mild symptoms.
Dr. Otoi told the Saturday Nation that if more people are vaccinated without worrying variants in the population, the peak will likely be mild.
“The determinant of the fifth wave is vaccination rate in the country when 51 percent of Kenyans are vaccinated, even if we have waves, they will be very low and we won’t even notice them. The vaccination reduces the intensity of the waves, ”he said.
To explain why we are likely to peak in November, said Dr. Otoi, according to her calculations, the average time between waves is 54 to 60 days.
“According to our calculations, the fifth wave will decline in January next year and the sixth Wave will likely run by March next year, “he said.
He added,” With a full vaccination we will have reduced the severity of possible attacks and attack rates. We only have to get vaccinated if we want to stay safe. “
Dr. Otoi said parts of the country with high populations and low vaccine intake are likely to experience stronger spikes than others. There is vaccine apathy in the LREB region.
“These are the same counties that topped the third wave and we expect them to be at the forefront of taking the vaccine. If the If the trend continues, I’m afraid that these are the same people who will be hit hard by the following waves because the regions are densely populated, “said Dr. Akhwale.
” We were expecting densely populated counties including Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga and Homa Bay to top the number of people fully vaccinated, unfortunately they are doing very badly, “added Dr. Akhwale.” We will not win this war if we take the time n to get vaccinated but the vaccines are available. If we get another wave, those who have been vaccinated will likely survive, “he said.
Low vaccine intake
There are 8,003,755 adults in the LREB region who be eligible for vaccination. Of these, only 170,235 were fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 2.1 percent.
According to the modeling, the probability that unvaccinated adults will get Covid-19 is 1.3 percent higher, with a probability of 127 percent .
The model also shows that people aged 50 and over are 47 percent more likely to contract Covid-19 without being vaccinated.
“The exponential growth in mortality risk Age calls for the protection of the elderly through vaccinations. Vaccinations are the most effective defense in the evolution of Covid-19 given the multitude of different variants, ”said Dr. Otoi.
In addition, the likelihood of a patient succumbing to modeling in Kenya is 27 percent higher Covid-19 due to insufficient oxygen flow in the county’s health facilities.
The model points out the gaps and shows that the low intake of vaccines in the elderly population is associated with little or no digital literacy with little online registration for vaccination.