Vice President William Ruto, on the other hand, will lose the most should the two political rivals face each other in next year’s general election.
Mr Odinga has come closest to a united anniversary party in the last two general elections when President Kenyatta and DP Ruto relied on the Mt Kenya and Rift Valley electoral blocs to win the polls.
However, political analysts claim that the gap between the leaders of the East and those of the West is widening Slopes of Mount Kenya could impair the chances of DP Ruto more than Mr Raila, whose stronghold of votes remains largely the same as in the last presidential election.
According to the political scientist Prof. Herman Manyora, the DP should replicate the anniversary victories in the Mt. Kenya region to win the polls next year.
“Ruto is like the proverbial crocodile whose strength is only known in the water is. If you can’t get Ruto from Mt. Kenya, you can’t beat him. The strategy is to ensure that he loses the Mt. Kenya bloc, among other things by supporting candidates who play off Mt. Kenya East against the West, ”said Prof. Manyora in an interview.
DP Ruto was named as the greatest lone beneficiary of the Mt. Kenya election bloc according to the political promises he made with his boss in the 2013 and 2017 elections.
Ruto’s perceived stronghold < / h2>
But the ongoing political implosion could, however, be an advantage for Mr Odinga, who found it difficult to win the region’s voters in all parliamentary elections when he ran for the presidency.
An analysis of the results of the 2013 presidential election shows that Mr Odinga defeated Mr Kenyatta in five of the eight former provincial regions. But the jubilee candidate opened a big head start especially in Central and Rift Valley, where he was declared the winner with around 800,000 additional votes.
In Central, a turnout of 92 percent gave Mr. Kenyatta 1,895,075 votes to Mr. Odinga a paltry 84,010 in 2013.
DP Ruto’s alleged stronghold Rift Valley, which had an 88 percent turnout, seemed to compensate for all the victories that Raila had achieved in Nyanza, since the Jubilee duo 2,188. 422 votes against Mr. Odingas. won 707,541 in Rift.
A similar pattern of votes was repeated in the 2017 election.
The current rift in the Mt. Kenya region is a repetition of the first multi-party polls from 1992. as a split one Opposition presented the victory to incumbent Daniel Moi.
Kenneth Matibas Ford Asili and Mwai Kibaki of the Democratic Party shared the votes in Mt. Kenya, while Jaramogi Odinga of Ford Kenya was the other major opposition politician who was also ran for president.
Change of voting patterns
The same opposition disunity In the subsequent elections in 1997, President Moi won the victory.
If no radical changes in voting patterns such as the DP, which is making significant advances in regions considered to be the strongholds of Mr Odinga, would seriously undermine his presidential campaign if he did not benefit from the Mount Kenya voting bloc.
< p> The east of Mount Kenya includes Embu, Meru, Mbeere and Tharaka, while the west is mainly composed of Kikuyu.
The west has produced three presidents since independence.
The nine Districts in the region have a combined 4.4 million votes, which are expected to rise by 1.68 million votes next year.
Nominee MP Maina Kamanda, who has been the face of Agikuyu’s support for Mr. Odinga the handshake says Mt. Kenya should decline the conversation that Mr Odinga cannot win the presidency. He told the nation that under an Odinga presidency the region would win more.
“Mr. Odinga only takes a fraction of Mount Kenya’s votes to win the presidency compared to Ruto, who more than 98 percent needed. ”Said Mr Kamanda.
Mr Odinga has not personally stated his intention to succeed President Kenyatta, but his supporters have declared him a candidate.
However, he took advantage of the handshake to rename himself in Central Kenya, where he was sold as a political enemy of the community in 2013 and 2017.
In this region, Mr. Odinga’s image has changed in the recent past was developed on a roller coaster ride, from political villain to hero.
Despite wooing the region, Odinga’s supposed strongholds have the largest block (9.3 million) of potential new voters as the result of the 2022 presidential election.
By getting the majority of the votes in Mt. Kenya, Mr. Odinga becomes his traditional strongholds of Nyanza, Western and Coas. expand t as well as Turkana, who have overwhelmingly voted for him in the past.
Former MP from Maragua, Elias Mbau, referred Mount Kenya voters to President Kenyatta’s speech on Madaraka Day, in who he said he will continue to work with Mr Odinga to create a prosperous, stable and secure future for the country.
“That alone says … As a region, we could vote ourselves out of government and remain vulnerable to negotiate for a piece of the Odinga cake after the election. We could revisit our Daniel Moi era when Kanu was in government, but the residents were against the system that relied on the late Joseph Kamotho as our primary purpose of convenience, “he said.
< h2> Busy Burning Bridges
But Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, who admitted the Mt. Kenya vote is critical and gives an advantage to the candidate who gets it, said Mr Ruto’s political support in the region is solid and all attempts to thwart his offer would fail.
“The meetings in Mount Kenya are from people who are trying to seek political stance and Ruto’s ambition to become president, to stop. But those of us in Camp Ruto know what we want. In fact, we would want a competition with Raila, “said Mr. Gachagua.
The Senator of Murang’a, Irungu Kang’ata, rejected the division plan as” hopeless “.
” Trying to divide Mount Kenya in order to rule is a plan that is going to fall on its head, “he said.
Naivasha MP Jane Kihara said: those who are very busy building bridges fire in Mt. Kenya and their plans will fail as the territorial ballots are locked and the password is DP William Ruto. “
The Nyandarua MP, Faith Gitau, cited the constituency’s recent voting samples Juja, Rurii, London, Lakeview and Gaturi mini-questions as an indication of where the voters stand in Mt. Kenya.
“We are waiting for the results of the Kiambaa and Muguga by-elections to seal the deal”, she quipped at DP Ruto, referring to the recent election victories of allied parties.