The ratio of hospital admissions and deaths to infections and cases in the forecast fourth wave of Covid-19 in South Africa will be “expected to be significantly lower than in the previous waves”.
This is thanks to vaccinations, especially in the elderly, and protection from previous infections, according to the South African Covid-19 Modeling Consortium, which has its latest report with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases on Wednesday.
The researcher Dr. Sheetal Silal said that “even in the hypothetical scenario of a complete waiver of a behavioral response to a resurgence, the size of the fourth wave of approvals is predicted” to be smaller than the third wave if there is no new variant. “
The number of infections and cases detected “could, however, be comparable to previous waves”.
Silal emphasized that the latest report as an analysis of scenarios should be read and not as revisions.
The consortium’s scenarios were based on two variables – people’s behavior in response to the risk of resurgence and the appearance of a hypothetical new variant, that eludes immunity.
Taking into account these two variables and other factors such as estimated previous infection rates and vaccination rates, the modelers developed four scenarios and predicted that the To Otherwise between 8,200 and 44,800 could be in a fourth wave.
If, in contrast to November, there is an increase in socializing in January, “later and smaller waves are expected there a larger proportion of the population will be vaccinated ”. ”.
However, they warned that smaller spikes in uptake did not necessarily mean that the health system and health workers could cope with them.
“This also depends on how much hospital capacity can still be made available. Even with persistent behavioral fatigue, rapid population vaccination is an effective tool to reduce serious illness and death, “said Silal.